The DeepSeek Reset

Is it over for this cycle?

In Partnership with IO

While both the equity and crypto markets are now spooked about DeepSeek’s impact on compute demand, I feel like the below meme is timely. And despite AI coins falling out of favor again, $IO continues to see its daily network earnings moving to ATHs (a very persistent theme). Based on the last week of usage, the network is now running at $23mm of ARR, and with AI mindshare likely to grow on the back of DeepSeek, it’s showing no signs of stopping.

The DeepSeek Reset

The equity and crypto markets are getting clobbered today, with NVDA down over 15% on GPU spending concerns given the efficiency of China based LLM, DeepSeek. The DeepSeek app quickly rose to the #1 free app in the US. These concerns sent the Nasdaq down over 3.5% while BTC fell 5%, ETH 8% and SOL 11%, with BTC slipping below $99k. over the last ~36 hours the crypto market has seen $1bn+ of liquidations, with higher volatility being a consistent trend over the last 2 months.

Alts were brutalized, with top 100 weakness in XCN, Fartcoin, Pengu, RAY, Pepe and AIOZ all down 15%+. On the week, TRUMP, SPX, UNI, ENA, PEPE and WIF were the most notable losers and were all down 20%+. While every alt was down today, there were small pockets of strength in the below coins over the last week while everything else has bled.

Chart of the Day with Vertex

My quant says the pain is not over, and has been shorting SOL on its TRUMP + fake ETF pump. Try app.vertexprotocol.com to trade SOL with up to 10x leverage.

Onchain coins have also been brutalized with all of the AI majors like VIRTUAL, ai16z, GRIFFAIN, VIRTUAL and AIXBT down 50%+ from their peaks. I still think AI coins broadly will be the best place to play this year, and DeepSeek likely just accelerates the amount of mindshare that AI has. But it doesn’t help that the amount of SOL tokens created continues to go parabolic, which dilutes the market’s attention and capital across hundreds of coins instead of concentrating into winners.

Even still, there is always a rotatoor trade, with a few tokens showing strength today in a sea of red including CUR, TRIUMPH, DeepSeek, SEEK, Beenz and MLG.

FAFO and TRUMP continue to be mindshare leaders, though the lower mindshare gainers like Seek, MLG and UFD are likely the most notable at the moment. Runners of the day included FAFO, Garlic and SHY which all ran to $15mm+. The new launch market is still alive and well despite the carnage in everything else.

It seems our onchain top signal indicator was right again, as every onchain coin has been punished since the TRUMP launch volume peak which was record breaking from a TG trading bot volume point of view. Volumes were still $400mm yesterday, so there is still plenty of capital sloshing around in the trenches.

0-5d old coins with notable $10k+ holders included Garlic, Vine and FAFO.

Interesting accounts getting smart follows:

2025: The Year of Mantle

MNT remains one of the only top 100 tokens holding up over the last 7 days in a down only market, and for good reason: their 2025 roadmap is packed full of new products following its 2024 success (which you can read more about below).

SMART MONEY CORNER - Presented by chainEDGE

  • Smart buying on the day was into Seek, UFD and Fartcoin while money flowed out of FAFO, Stupid, cloudy and Vine

  • For the most part smart balances have been blowing out of positions given the weakness in onchain coins. With that said, there is still appetite for newer launches (which now dominate smart wallet strategies at the moment).

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The author may also have positions in the tokens mentioned in the content, so please do your own research.