The Daily Edge 2.12.2024

ERC404 PVP

After successfully calling the top in PANDORA / the ERC404 ecosystem, things have softened, with the newer beta universe turning into full blown PvP again (thanks ETH). Since the prior post, PANDORA has fallen 23%, while some beta favorites such as Pepe404 (-97%), Defrogs (-62%) and Monarch (-67%) have gotten slaughtered. The one notable bright spot in the initial 404 beta plays has been CELL, which has held up very well, essentially flat since Friday.

The second wave of 404 runners over the weekend was marked by MINER, DAWN and FORGE. MINER has been the best performer of the group, sitting near ATH at $11mm, while DAWN has fallen 36% from its peak and FORGE down 82%.

There are now 4 big trends driving the DEX market:

1. Rotation back to ETH ERC20s
   After a brief moment of easy money and euphoria, money is flowing back to ERC20s. AI projects have been leading the way, with GLQ +46% in the last 24hr, AEGIS +43%, CHAT +41% and wBAI +37%. Other notable outperformers over the last day were INS (+36%), BSSB (+31%) and MUBI (+26%).

2. SOL about to take the degen crown yet again
   Since the 9th, ETH degen trading volumes have fallen 65% and are now in line with SOL. Is this the end of the fun on ETH? Do we only deserve 7 good trading days? Money has also flocked back to Sol, with most of the ecosystem +20% on the day. WEN was up +40%, WIF up 26% and WHALES also bottomed around the ERC404 peak, running +32% since. BONK is also having a comeback, up 30% from the recent lows.

3. DN404
   The introduction of DN404, a better more optimized version of 404 has led to a new flood of projects, with obviously improved tech. 2 projects recently launched that have dominated volume share for the new tech: Asterix, which has jumped to a $6mm market cap right out of the gate. And Deez Nuts, at a $1.3mm market cap.

4. 404 Rugs
   The amount of rugs in the 404 / DN404 space reached a fever pitch today, with a minimum of 35 rugs that actual traders ended up buying into. The 2 most notable were ERC721 HUB, which traded $2.3mm before rugging (it actually rugged twice, but who’s counting), and DIGITS which appeared to be pretty hyped but swiftly went to zero on $1mm of trading volume. This likely marks a coming slowdown in appetite for 404/DN404 new launches, and money looking to allocate into the meta, will look towards PANDORA or the betas that didn’t die.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• CHAINPAINT - PXL was looking to be a bright spot in an otherwise ruggers market, climbing to a $3mm market cap as a first mover in gamified ERC721 art. But it sounds like there was a bug in the code, which sent the token down 90%, though there is a small bid here at $310k market cap

• ATRX - This experimental DN404 project was the cleanest (and maybe most profitable) launch today, with $10mm in trading volume and sitting at a $6mm market cap. As the DN404 narrative picks up or loses steam, this is currently the token leading attention and will trade accordingly

• MINER which launched yesterday introduced its own optimized version of 404 called ERC-X. The project has risen to a $10mm market cap on $20mm of volume

• BASE - TYBG and TOSHI have held up well while DEGEN has traded down 65% over the past few days. BASED also looks like an interesting project worth checking out - its a intent based derivatives platform with $197mm of traded volume (according to its site)

• GENESIS RUNES - RSIC competitor that had its mint today

THINGS TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR

• C4SH404 - The first experimental implementation of gambling & Staking on DN404 tech is launching tomorrow

• DYMDOGE - first memecoin on DYM

• EXTENSIBLE - new AI project (no info) picking up smart followers today

• PALETTE - not yet launched, this is a generative ERC404 art collection between CFW and PANDORA.

• FANTASYTOP - a SocialFi + trading cards game picking up smart followers today

The current market environment is perfect for using chainEDGE, getting to flex a mix of new token alerts based on PnL, trader type, min buy and number of wallets, along with our swap and holdings change data. Sign up today before we release Solana smart money data and prices increase.

SMART MONEY CORNER - Powered by chainEDGE

• Notable inflows today into DN404 ($363k), ASTX ($288k), MINER ($219k) and VEC ($23k).

• Net sell flows were pretty tame today and were led by ERC404s: MNRCH -$72k, VEIL -$63k, ChainPaint -$58k and DAWN -$35l

• Smart money favorites (measured by number of $10k+ smart holders) have shown strong accumulation trends (based on 7 day QTY change %) in: RLB (+254%), MUBI (+29%), CPOOL (+192%) and ONDO (+71%).

• On a 30 day basis, we’ve only seen strong accumulation trends in AI coins:

  • AGRS

  • MND

  • TAO

• The new launches today were full of landmines, with ASTX leading smart attention with $448k of buys and ~78% retention

• This wallet crushed the 404 beta trade, making $62k on Alphabet, $55k on Crystal, $33k on MINER and $8k on CELL. They just bought a whopping $67k of MINER and

MEME OF THE DAY